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York, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
NWS Forecast for York PA
National Weather Service Forecast for: York PA
Issued by: National Weather Service State College, PA
Updated: 4:56 am EDT Jul 16, 2025
 
Today

Today: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 3pm.  Partly sunny, with a high near 91. Heat index values as high as 100. Calm wind becoming south around 6 mph in the afternoon.  Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Partly Sunny
then Chance
T-storms
Tonight

Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms likely before 5am, then a slight chance of showers.  Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 73. South wind 3 to 5 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
T-storms
Likely then
Chance
Showers
Thursday

Thursday: A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 11am.  Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 93. Heat index values as high as 102. West wind 6 to 10 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Chance
T-storms

Thursday
Night
Thursday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm.  Partly cloudy, with a low around 74. West wind around 6 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Chance
T-storms then
Partly Cloudy
Friday

Friday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm.  Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. Northwest wind around 6 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Mostly Sunny
then Chance
Showers
Friday
Night
Friday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm.  Partly cloudy, with a low around 66. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Chance
Showers then
Partly Cloudy
Saturday

Saturday: A chance of showers after 2pm.  Partly sunny, with a high near 85. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Partly Sunny
then Chance
Showers
Saturday
Night
Saturday Night: A chance of showers before 8pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 8pm and 2am, then a chance of showers after 2am.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 71. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Chance
T-storms

Sunday

Sunday: A chance of showers, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm.  Mostly cloudy, with a high near 86. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Chance
Showers then
Showers
Likely
Hi 91 °F Lo 73 °F Hi 93 °F Lo 74 °F Hi 86 °F Lo 66 °F Hi 85 °F Lo 71 °F Hi 86 °F

Hazardous Weather Outlook
 

Today
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 3pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 91. Heat index values as high as 100. Calm wind becoming south around 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tonight
 
Showers and thunderstorms likely before 5am, then a slight chance of showers. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 73. South wind 3 to 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Thursday
 
A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 11am. Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 93. Heat index values as high as 102. West wind 6 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Thursday Night
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 74. West wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Friday
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. Northwest wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Friday Night
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 66. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Saturday
 
A chance of showers after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 85. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Saturday Night
 
A chance of showers before 8pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 8pm and 2am, then a chance of showers after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 71. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Sunday
 
A chance of showers, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 86. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Sunday Night
 
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Monday
 
A chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Monday Night
 
A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Tuesday
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 85. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

 

Forecast from NOAA-NWS for York PA.

Weather Forecast Discussion
236
FXUS61 KCTP 161248
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
848 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Elevated risk of excessive rainfall and flash flooding this
  afternoon and evening
* Scattered thunderstorms with locally heavy rain will remain in
  the forecast forecast on Thursday, with a reduction in
  rainfall anticipated on Friday
* Heat risk builds this afternoon and likely peaks on Thursday,
  with potential for heat indices to exceed 100 degrees for
  portions of southern PA

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Early this morning, clear-partly cloudy skies covered much of
the Commonwealth, with areas of river valley fog continuing to
develop, owing to light winds and wet soil conditions.
Interestingly, maritime type stratus clouds are notably absent
compared to the last couple of mornings, and given that sunrise
is fast approaching, their development seems increasingly
unlikely.

Areas of locally dense river valley fog are expected to burn
off before 9 am in most locales. This should lead into a period
of hazy sunshine for the late morning and early afternoon hours,
which should allow the atmosphere to heat up and destabilize.

By this afternoon, we still expect a mid-level short-wave trough
to be on approach from the OH Valley, along with perhaps the
remnants of a MCV, seen this morning on satellite imagery over
central KY. Forced lift from these features, along with a
remnant low-level warm front lifting back northeast across PA,
should lead to increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms
by mid to late afternoon, lasting well into the evening hours.

Given steadily increasing precipitable water values, generally
ranging from 1.7 to 2.2" by early evening, a water loaded
vertical column (lack of any real dry layers), and relatively
light wind flow through a deep layer (progged winds of 20 kt or
less all the way up through about 400 mb), the environment
would seem to favor torrential downpours and isolated flash
flooding as the main concern of the day, with isolated damaging
wind gusts via wet microbursts a distant second. Although, as
just mentioned, the concern for isolated flash flooding is
there, lack of confidence in which areas will see the most
persistent thunderstorms and repeat rounds makes placement of
any Flood Watches difficult at this time. Thus, the preferred
strategy would be to wait until later today when radar trends
and near- term, high resolution model output can be evaluated,
to see if the need exists for any smaller, targeted Flood Watch
areas.

Overnight, although convective coverage should decrease late
behind the above mentioned short-wave, a juicy air mass and only
gradually reducing instability may keep at least isolated showers
and thunderstorms at play.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
On Thursday, model guidance is coming into focus that as a
northern stream short-wave (coming through MT this morning)
tracks eastward, a surface wave will develop and track north of
PA, from the Upper Great Lakes across upstate NY and into
northern New England. As this occurs, a surface cool front will
approach the Commonwealth from the NW and could impinge on the
region by late in the day or during the evening. Daytime heating
and some height falls aloft should lead to at least moderately
unstable conditions once again.

As opposed to today, the environmental flow looks stronger on
Thursday (mid-level winds of 30-40 kt) and there also appears to
be some drier air aloft to tap into. As a result, the threat of
severe weather (damaging winds/hail) looks a little better as
compared to today, with the flash flooding risk a bit reduced as
compared to today, given somewhat lower precipitable water
values with the aforementioned drier air aloft, and also faster
cell motions to potentially limit residence time of any heavy
downpours over a given location.

The other potentially high impact weather issue on Thursday is
the heat and humidity for PA`s southern valleys, where heat
indices could locally approach or exceed 100 degrees. However,
due to uncertainty with convective timing and coverage (which
could conceivably knock the heat down a bit in some areas),
we`ll take a wait and see attitude on any future Heat
Advisories.

On Friday, model guidance has generally trended faster with the
passage of the above mentioned cool front, with indications now
there that the front could be largely south of the Commonwealth
prior to peak heating Friday afternoon. Our southern tier
counties may still be close enough to the boundary for at least
isolated afternoon convection, however, confidence is increasing
that areas near and north of I-80 will see a rain-free day.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Still no real change to the large-scale pattern that has
persisted now for a couple of weeks, featuring an expansive
summertime upper ridge axis from the southwestern Atlantic
across most of the southern U.S., and a more progressive, zonal
northern stream belt of westerlies near the international border
with Canada.

As individual short-wave impulses within the northern stream
flow periodically track north of the Commonwealth, they`ll bring
just enough height falls to steer surface frontal complexes
across PA, with convective coverage maximized in the initial
warm advection pattern with these waves, and also just ahead of
approaching cool fronts, focused mainly during peak heating
(afternoon/early evening hours). If individual cool fronts can
push far enough south before stalling and/or washing out, we may
also squeeze out an occasional day with little to no rainfall.

At this early vantage point, it looks like the highest
probability for showers and thunderstorms is from late Saturday
through Sunday, with perhaps Monday as a mostly rain-free day.

Medium-range guidance is also suggesting that the upper ridge
may flex its muscle some by the middle of next week, perhaps
leading to building heat and humidity by then, after a
temporary break from such from late in the weekend into early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Some minor adjustments made as of mid morning, as isolated
areas of low clouds and fog burns off.

Earlier discussion below.

A weak upper level trough in combination of high dewpoints and
heating will result in the increasing chance of shower and
storms across the area after fog lifts in the late morning.
Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected across
the region by Wednesday afternoon and evening. The timing of
these storms will be difficult to nail down given the nature of
the surface convergence that will be driving them, but most
airfields will see periods of thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon.
These storms may linger into at least early Thursday morning,
until a weak cold front drops south and east of the area.

Outlook...

Thu...Sct/Nmrs SHRA/TSRA.

Fri-Sat...Mainly dry.

Sun...Showers and storms likely.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Jurewicz
NEAR TERM...Jurewicz
SHORT TERM...Jurewicz
LONG TERM...Jurewicz
AVIATION...Martin/Gartner/Bowen
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Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS Script developed by: El Dorado Weather






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